Question
I've got a large amount of white oak available to me, in tree form. I can get these delivered in log form, for $300/m.
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Sawing costs me:
14 cents/bf for flat sawing
16 cents/bf for quarter sawing
Drying costs me:
4/4: 18 cents/bf
6/4: 20 cents/bf
8/4: 24 cents/bf
I'm in northern Wisconsin. Can I make any money if I buy this white oak? If so, how would you cut it? I've got about 50,000 BF available to me at that price... Red oak also. I see WoodPlanet has hundreds of oak RFQs, but I have no idea what they are willing to pay.
I am willing, and have the hardware to plane, straight line, and rip this stuff, too, plus two low cost laborers available. I'm not afraid of putting in some time to custom mill the boards to spec. This is not my primary income. I'm looking at this as potential side cash.
Forum Responses
(Sawing and Drying Forum)
I don't think you meant .62 plus sawing and drying, did you? That .62 includes sawing and drying.
Try not to think about how you lose money on some items, but rather (and this is simplified)...
Revenue = x% Green Boards to be dried (and then further broken down by grade) x (market values) + (y%) ties and other green products, etc. x market prices + (100-x-y%) x dust waste, etc.
On the cost side, you need to make decisions all along that take into consideration the sell vs. process further options. Having said this, you need to know what you are going to do with all the products. I agree with a previous comment about understanding the grade and quality of the logs. Are the veneer logs included? If so, will you saw them or call in a veneer buyer?
I disagree that the money is made in quartering and selling retail. If this were the case we should all buy green quartered lumber and sell it off onesie, twosie style. A log is worth what a log is worth. A plain sawmill, quarter sawmill, and a veneer mill will ultimately determine the value of a log based on what they will yield.
No easy answer, but if you have an expectation for each item, and what you will do with it next, you can place a value on each item and then make a determination on whether it is a risk worth taking or not.
In my sawing class, I present several examples of what lumber a log of a given size and grade will produce (volume and $$) in order to estimate the profit and the amount that can be spent to purchase a log. I also analyze whether to saw a cant (depending on cant prices) versus lumber (depending on lumber prices) from different logs. Likewise, I look at the potential for sawing versus selling a veneer log.
Where our industry really runs into problems is when the lumber prices are falling while log prices are not or are not falling as quickly (or logs and timber were purchased via a contract at a higher price months earlier). Log costs in the past have been 70 to 75% of the total cost for a hardwood lumber mill. If the lumber prices drop, the percentage of log cost goes up, using up the profit.
As best we can estimate, today hardwood lumber usage is down 33% and lumber prices are down as much as 50% (or even more in a few instances). Sawmill closures are common.
Contributor A, were you referencing the prices I listed when your formulated your reply? Are you suggesting I'd need to find lower priced logs, and lower cutting costs than I showed, to profit with ties?
And yes, the drying prices I gave are accurate.
That quote from contributor G may look good on paper, but I took all levels of calculus and differential equations in engineering school. And here where the tooth hits the wood, sometimes the numbers are inverted, or better stated, perverted.
It is a simple fact that no matter what, when you saw some wood, you lose money on it. Some you will just break even on, and if you are good and watchful, you can make money on the rest. It is the wood you make money on you need to watch, and it is the wood you lose money on you need to watch even more. This is a business of millions where every penny counts. I sell pallet stock for $280 mbdft, but paid $350 mbdft for the log. I sell rr ties for $520 mbdft and have $500 mbdft in them. I sell green log run lumber at the yard for $600 mbdft but sell FAS KD S4S for $ mbdft that I have $ mbdft in. Right now margins are very tight and this is the reason I get 4 to 5 flyers a week for mill auctions. There were 5 mills running here, and now only 2. I know of 10 in the region that have gone under.
Yes, I used your numbers, which are not much different from mine. You just need to account for handling cost and the time your coin is tied up. You will need to learn to read logs and watch your sawyer to make sure you are getting the best cut and edging.
I wonder why someone would sell logs at such a low price. At the least, they should have a competitive sale and take the highest bid. Has anyone scaled and cruised the stand?
As with any purchaser of lumber, getting paid can be an issue. Many buyers of t/l lots will regrade the lumber and determine the value and then issue a check in 30 days, but not for any lumber that they claim is below grade or out of specification (too thick, for example). A lot of companies today are slow payers. For export, you can expect to find that quite often you never get paid... but low grade export is rare.
I looked at WoodPlanet and saw that some folks wanted KD. I did not see many No.2 Common hardwoods green.
Will you sell truckload quantities? No. Then you aren't competing with all of the other starving mills. Put value added to work here. Market your products as finished - flooring, v-match paneling, trim, cabinet stock, etc. It might take longer to move your wood, but the price will be a whole lot higher ($2-3 bf).
I've never cut a tie or pallet stock. We turn all low grade into flooring or paneling; we make money the niche way, not the high volume way.
Last month I was looking for white oak logs. #2 were selling for $650/th. Northern Wisconsin, the sawmills don't want to buy logs, no markets. My guess is this wood is available because the logger had a pulp market but no log market.
What prices should we use (f.o.b. buyer) for green lumber? Perhaps $775, 500, 300 and 225, which includes 100 miles of transport. So, the log above will produce (37 x .775) + (178 x .500) + (402 x .300) + (433 x .225) = $ 335 of green lumber. I am assuming that one could actually sell No.2 and No.3 white oak. When you subtract the log costs ($300) and sawing costs ($140), we are in the hole by $105.
Had this been a No.1 log, we could have made money with lumber worth $560. A No.2 log would be profitless. (This means that the lumber produced from a No.2 log would be cheaper to buy already sawn than to saw it yourself. Plus, by buying the lumber, you could avoid buying the lower grades that do not sell well even after drying.)
Bottom line is that we do not know enough to be certain, but at $300 per MBF, it is hard to believe that these are quality oak logs. You need to know the quality of the logs (and their size) plus have markets for all grades that are active and will allow prompt selling.
This also goes to the importance of taking good notes and records of what goes into your mill and the yield it leads to. Every successful mill that has brought me on consult has had detailed log reports of inputs and corresponding lumber, cant, and ties reports on the output. It has been their own private jackpot of information to use when purchasing logs out in the woods. It may not change what their competitor is willing to pay for a job, but it will limit what they think will provide a return.
Gene, what have you found to be the best published or available references that are used to help sawmills determine the grade distribution based on log size and grade, other than their own private history?
Hardwood log grades and lumber grade
"This also goes to the importance of taking good notes and records of what goes into your mill and the yield it leads to."
What contributor G says here is very important. You have got to know what you are having sawn and what it produces.
Three hardwood mills that I know went out of business here had put in log scanners. Quantity of products increased but quality dropped. One of the auctions I was at I noticed bundles of 4/4 x 4 oak lumber waiting to be shipped. These were very nice clean boards. Do you know why they were some of the nails in the coffin of this mill?
With the numbers I presented, why even saw logs? Instead buy lumber from someone else and make the most money running a kiln and a retail yard.
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Running a retail yard requires commitment. Lumber isn't my full time job - basically a hobby that's gone wild. I make too much money at my full time job to consider quitting it.
The market I sell my wood to allows me to hit it hard when I have the wood, and back off when I don't have the time. The orders really pile up when I'm too busy with my full time job, but people are willing to stick with me and wait, since my prices are so good. My customers have very few (most have none) other places to get what I deliver. And with my low costs with drying and cutting, and logs, you can see that even when others try to compete, they can't... due to price. I certainly pass my low costs on to the customer, and that drastically thins out the competition.
Yes, I could hire people... but we all know the headache that brings on.
I have no problem buying woods run logs. I get my yields that the log gives up. The bigger mills, over time, have painted themselves into a corner by grade sawing and grading their lumber. They now have limited their markets. If they would offer a grade of wood, say character, which has some of all grades, in nominal sizes - 4", 6", 8"... I've been doing this for years and can sell all of my wood.
The questioner has the capabilities to offer a more finished product. You guys can't compare it to the bigger mills just offering kiln dried lumber. It's called niche marketing.
Do I want to sell a truckload of wood for say $700/th or value add to make a product that will sell for $/th, knowing I'm only going to sell in lots of maybe 500- b.f.? I'll take the latter anytime. And if the questioner is only doing this part time, why not sell less for more? Hell, I buy woods run basswood for $300/th and make money. So why not oak?
Imagine I had customers for all the parts of a cow. I also had access to a herd. It may or may not be that I am best off killing, butchering, and selling the parts. Perhaps, if my real niche is selling steaks, I could just buy the steaks and let someone else deal with the hoofs, bones and hide.
At the sawmill or in any manufacturing facility, to do a proper maximization of profit, you need to consider an alternate usage or alternate supply chain to produce your item.
The point is, if he can buy green or kiln dried for less than what it would cost him to get the logs to that stage, he should do that and save his time and energy to market at the higher price.
We saw our hardwoods either 6" or 8". Once it's dry I can make 5" floor or v-match the 8". We can make 7" floor or rip in half for 3" floor or trim or whatever, or just sell lumber. I have not had good luck buying lumber on the open markets for the above mentioned reasons.
My customers come to me for more reasons than just wood. God knows we aren't the cheapest. It's the small things that bring them back. Jockeying lumber is not like selling pens, where you know your exact cost. I still say if you're selling a finished product, sawing it yourself is the way to go.
Here is the problem with lower grade logs, which I quoted earlier. Forty percent of the lumber produced from a log is No.3 Common, which is seldom kiln dried and would be very difficult to market in small quantities. Note it was stated that there would be very little value added processing... no planer, etc. I agree that value-added and niche markets are the way to go. One might spend more time and effort in niche marketing than in sawing and drying. I have worked hard to find niche markets that use No.2 and No.3 Common red oak and they are few and far between. (One good value-added product for low grade lumber is character flooring, but you would need flooring machines to plane, t&g, and cut to length. Again, you have to sell this to make money and the market in Northern Wisconsin is small. There are already suppliers for such flooring in Madison and other larger cities.)
Next problem is that 35% of the lumber is No.2 Common, which again is hard to move in small lots and even larger lots. It has a very low value (mainly because lots of mills have plenty of No.2 Common available and need to move it). Many No. 2 markets are for green.
Finally, I quoted green prices to show that it is sawing that is non-profitable. It should be easy for everyone to use (for No.1 and Btr and maybe No.2 Common) the drying costs that the questioner gave ($.18 per BF) and then figure about 6% volume loss due to shrinkage ( BF green becomes BF KD) and 5% loss in value due to degrade (although some data shows white oak loses about 8% or even more). And then there will be storage costs for KD lumber, so $.20 might be a better number to use.
Remember that the questioner is in Northern Wisconsin. There are not many people within 150 miles (or even 200 miles perhaps) and wood using industries are even more difficult to find in that region today. Transport to Minneapolis, Milwaukee or Chicago would be exorbitant and would have lots of competition.
Note that WoodPlanet has some requests for No.2 Common, but their prices are traditionally low. The questioner mentions them in his original note and states he does not know what they pay. He does state he knows prices he can get (apparently for small quantities) in a later message.
So the lower grade lumber that the bigger mills don't dry because of no markets, we dry and make flooring and sell for $2.95 and up. It's not worth doing? Please explain.
Small mills like mine shouldn't even be compared to what the bigger ones do. We aren't designed to be high volume to turn a profit. Most people on this site are small, so you're not comparing apples to apples. Also the bigger mills that have stayed busy during this downturn probably have value added capabilities.
My point was that sawing low cost logs can lead to uneconomical operations and that it would be more economical in many cases to buy the green grades you need rather than sawing it. That is why I gave green lumber examples.
It is the final processing that will make you the highest profit and such a profit can cover up the losses in sawing.
I agree with Gene. A market has to be available so that once the material is cut and processed, it is sold. In today's economy we have to think in reverse. In good times we could cut lumber of all sizes and grades and a market or sale would follow. Now we have to find a need and then find the logs and material to fill it. In past messages I have questioned building inventory for the future. Not all that is cut can be stored. We have to make a living and sell as much as possible, but perhaps some that can not be sold at a reasonable price could be stored. Insects seem to be the one big factor.
And contributor G writes: "The point is, if the questioner can buy green or kiln dried for less than what it would cost him to get the logs to that stage, he should do that and save his time and energy to market at the higher price."
Keyword is "if." But it's not gonna happen, because my costs are so low on the logs, cutting, and drying. Also, I do run my boards through the planer, before I add a little more value. I consider that minimal processing.
I cannot smorgasboard the cut. None of my stuff is pre-sold. But it all sells. From the sounds of things, contributor S has a good handle on how this has worked for me.
Why would I buy lumber when I could get logs and sawing so cheap, you ask? It is called turnaround time on investment. If you can sell the wood, why spend $1,000 on logs and sawing and wait 90 days till you can make your profit, when you can buy $1,000 of lumber today and have your profit next week and start over again? I buy lumber from other mills all the time and if I could get money to expand, I would buy a lot more. Why? Turnaround time on investment. Why do I saw? I just really love to saw. Matter of fact, I am fixing to go out and turn on the lights and try to get in a few more hours today and make a few more qsaw red oak boards.
I agree that we do not have the info on the situation to make a proper decision.
Can the land be leased for a period of time to allow some market recovery? It is the market that dictates whether money can be made. I have at present cuts of downed trees given to me and I know on some of it I will lose money.
Your market is the other factor which I cannot get a flavour for. If it is small orders based on past sales, I think you are not going to make money on any sort of volume.
Unfortunately I agree with Gene that we have not seen the bottom yet. Government stimulus packages run out this summer. We have had reno tax cuts this last year which are running out. Inventories are high. Things will get better, but how long will you have to sit on unsold product?
Also, note that the questioner says he can sell upper grade white oak for $ to per MBF and low grade for $ to per MBF. At those prices for KD, planed white oak lumber, assuming that the market in his area is large enough to buy 50 MBF, he will make plenty of money with any grade log. However, I venture that most people cannot get such good lumber prices, especially for No.2 and 3 Common; for these low grade $200 to 250 would be more common.
The sawyer uses a Wood-Mizer. I think it's an LT40.
When drying, first he fully air dries all lumber, then puts it into his wood fired kiln to get it to 6-8%. I recall seeing some sort of baffling system in his kiln that distributes the heat well. Lumber has been excellent that I've gotten dried by him. The cherry especially. Many people commented on the richness of the color, as well as the ease to work it. I sold the cherry as soon as I marketed it.
I interpreted richness to equal darker than most lumberyard cherry, and ease to equal softer, easier to cut, plane, sand, and drive a nail into than most lumberyard cherry. Scroll sawyers especially loved this "slow baked" cherry.
Your formula used for circle mills seems way off. Before I went to bandmills, we had a circle mill. Three guys plus the sawyer. We would cut 10-12,000 b.f./day. Yeah, you were tired at the end of the day, but I guess that's why it's called work. The key to any operation is having everything move smoothly, with the least amount of steps. Every move needs to be in a positive direction.
I have wondered as to the comparison from circular mills to band. I appreciate your input as you have had both. Do you just cut hardwoods? We have an old McCrae with an Oliver (Canada built in Orillia, On.) edger, 120 h.p. diesel, 54 inch blades. We run mainly softwood, much the same as a scragg mill, 2 sides on the carriage and through the edger. Cutting larger logs leaves a lot of waste in the sawdust pile.
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Woodmizer is an excellent mill.I had a deposit on one before I bought my Turner.I had a problem with the salesman being off by 8 weeks on the delivery date so I went elsewhere,again no reflection on Woodmizer.The 'salesman' aspect of Woodmizer is why I don't have one either. I know a LOT of people with Woodmizers and they're all happy with them. And being a welder/fabricator by trade, I've scrutinized them thoroughly in the past and they look well thought out and built.
A lot of guys on here can build their own rigs or modify a entry level mill into a thing of fnction and beauty.True, but then a lot of folks go out and buy a Cadillac and don't make crap with it. It's not as much the sawmill as it is the craftsman, some craftsmen are great and can build fine furniture with a butter knife and a sanding block. More often than not, most have way more tools than they actually need.
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